I was watching Aaron Rodgers on the sideline during yesterday's NFC Championship game, and he had this intense, brooding expression. With his dark countenance and his shrewd, melancholy eyes, I realized he'd make a perfect Hamlet.
"Tis now the very witching time of night, when churchyards yawn and hell itself breathes out contagion to this world: now could I drink hot blood, and do such bitter business, as the day would quake to look on."
For years, he was reared in the comfortable shadow of a father figure, biding his time until the kingdom of the Super Bowl would be his. But that father figure, much beloved by the people, did not leave in peace. The memory of King Hamlet's abbreviated greatness still haunts Rodgers. The presence is almost spectral.
"The serpent that did sting thy father's life now wears his crown!"
Hamlet's rival to the throne of Super Bowl greatness is a cunning, spiritually bereft man with strange sexual proclivities. He says all the right things, but words without thoughts never to heaven go, Claudius.
"What if this cursed hand were thicker than itself with brother's blood- is there not rain enough in the sweet heavens to wash it white as snow?"
The two protagonists are competing for the fickle prize that once belonged to King Hamlet and has since gone to bed with Claudius. She has neither loyalty nor discretion, but her blessing can mean the possession of a kingdom. Gertrude had barely slipped from King Hamlet's grasp before she pledged herself to Claudius.
"O most pernicious woman! O villain, villain, smiling damned villain!"
Just when young Hamlet needed a strong female presence to fortify his mind and spur him to the crown, he found nothing but a pale, wilting flower. Though attractive at times, Ophelia utterly lacked the inner mettle needed to prepare Hamlet for the final conquest.
"Frailty, thy name is woman!"
Along the way, a fat blowhard inserts himself in the middle of the clash between Hamlet and Claudius, talks too much, and pays the ultimate price. For his machinations, Polonius was treated to a sudden death.
"Therefore, since brevity is the soul of wit, and tediousness the limbs and outward flourishes, I will be brief."
And then there's a pair of bumbling idiots, a moronic duo who provide some comic relief but are, in the end, merely ridiculous. Nobody is quite content until the final proclamation:
"Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead!"
Hamlet's best friend and touchstone is a more sensible, even-keeled sort. He's highly intelligent and loyal to a fault, and can only hope that some of his wisdom rubs off on the mercurial heir. Thrift, thrift Horatio! And hope never to utter words like these:
"Now cracks a noble heart. Good-night, sweet prince, and flights of angels sing thee to thy rest."
In any world, there are downtrodden men without glory or distinction. They exist to fill a necessary role in society, but are largely looked down upon, forgotten, or mocked. Still, their position at the bottom of the social ladder provides them with a certain perspective, and as such they're prone to insightful witticisms about their betters. In some ways, their judgment is final.
Gravedigger:What is he that builds stronger than either the mason, the shipwright, or the carpenter?
Other:The gallows-maker, for that frame outlives a thousand tenants.
Gravedigger:And when you are asked this question next, say “A grave-maker.” The houses that he makes last till doomsday.
Set eyes upon a one-time member of the king's court, a former big shot. Now he's nothing but a decaying jester, and all you ever see of him is a skull.
"Alas! poor Yorick.
We can't forget the passionate, virile Laertes, a hot-blooded and skillful youth who will be tricked by Claudius into bringing about Hamlet's downfall.
"It warms the very sickness in my heart, that I shall live and tell him to his teeth, 'thus didest thou.'"
Finally, in the wreckage of the kingdom, a young conqueror from a foreign land will arrive to claim the crown for himself, and there it will stay for centuries and centuries.
"But I do prophesy the election lights on Fortinbras: he has my dying voice; so tell him, with the occurrents, more and less, which have solicited. The rest is silence."
In hindsight, the original government slogan designed to increase female participation in the domestic war effort was a little misguided.
Today is going to be an excellent day in college hoops, my friends. Let's start with the non-ACC stuff:
1. #1 Ohio State at #22 Illinois, Noon, CBS
vs.
My expertise on the Big Ten is limited, but I do know that I hate Ohio State, and I do know that KenPom says this is the third-hardest game left on their schedule. The Illini are undefeated at home, with big wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State, and even at noon their crowd should be in full throat. God, I hope they win.
Extra: Here's another feather in Florida State's cap: they held Ohio State to their lowest point total of the season, 58. Granted, FSU only scored 44, but on a good shooting day that was upset territory. (Oh God, I'm fully gone to the Seminoles, just like commenter Lara warned me...they are going to break my heart when I pick them for the Elite 8. I can already see it.)
2. #11 Texas at #2 Kansas, 4pm, CBS
vs.
In some ways, this is a win-win game; one of them has to lose. In other ways, it's lose-lose, since one of them has to win. Did that make any sense? Put more simply, I hate both of these teams. But I think I hate Texas more. Kansas' undefeated record has been surviving by the skin of its undefeated teeth. A 2-point win at home to UCLA, an OT win on the road against Michigan, a 3-point home win against Nebraska, and a 2-point home win against USC attest to a certain amount of luck. The Horns, coming off a hugely convincing home drubbing of A&M, might be able to finish the job in the midst of the gregorian chanting weirdo Lawrence partisans.
Extra: What's with USC this year? The Trojans beat Texas handily, barely lost to Kansas on the road, beat UCLA, and beat Tennessee. Then they lost to Bradley (a team Duke beat by 35), Rider, TCU, and Oregon State. Seriously, how does that happen? The Rider and Bradley losses weren't even on the road.
Double Extra: This game is on at the same time as Duke-Wake Forest. Am I a horrible fan if I drift away in the second half? We're going to be winning by like 90.
3. #7 Villanova at #3 Syracuse, Noon, ESPN
vs.
My favorite game of the day. Syracuse got knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten on Monday, and they've had a whole week to prepare for the guard-heavy Wildcats. Nova is also coming off a road loss, by two at UConn, and they'll have to shoot the lights out against the Boeheim 2-3 zone to avoid the same fate. It's entirely possible that Syracuse will get every single rebound in this game against Villanova's 15-guard offense. Joseph is back from his concussion, and the Syracuse frontcourt will be in beast mode. Go Orange!
Extra: James Southerland, a sophomore for Syracuse, is a weird dude. I went to the Cuse-Notre Dame game over winter break, and I got to see the home side warm up. Every time Southerland shot the ball, he'd start bocking like a chicken. Except instead of saying 'bock,' he'd say 'ball.' Over and over and over, until a ballboy obliged by throwing him the ball. He kept this up for the entire shootaround. The managers must hate him. Still, he's awesome; in terms of boards per possession, he's the second-best rebounder on the team, and the #1 three point shooter. He only plays about 18 minutes per game, but he always gives them an immediate spark off the bench, so that number will continue to rise.
4. #22 Kansas State at #10 Texas A&M, 2pm, ESPN
vs.
Both of these teams have a lot to prove. The Aggies need to show that their road disaster against Texas was an anomaly, and that they're worthy of top-10 status. The stakes for Kansas State are even higher. After starting in the top-5, the season has been a small disaster. They're 1-3 in the Big 12 and a loss away from being unranked for the first time all year. They haven't really beat a decent team yet, unless you count Virginia Tech very early on, but they've lost to every okay-to-good team they've faced: Duke, Florida, UNLV, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Missouri. They're looking very much like an average team who wins when they should and loses when they should. To prove they belong in the top-25, they need a road win today. A bad loss at Missouri on Monday really has them on the ropes. A&M, on the other hand, is a classic workhorse Big-12 team. They win a lot of close games, defend their house very well, and sometimes get smacked on the road. This is a deceptively great game.
Extra: I have it on good authority that K-State coach Frank Martin will shove one of his own player's faces into a toilet at halftime on live television.
5. #18 Michigan State at #13 Purdue, 9pm, ESPN
vs.
I sort of feel sorry for Michigan State, a team with some personnel problems that seems to be treading water on their way out of the top 25. But whenever that pity emotion rises in me, I force myself to remember: this is exactly what Izzo wants you to feel. The bastards will still end up in the Final Four somehow. But check out their last four games: road loss at Penn State, OT home win against Wisconsin with a miracle comeback, OT home win against Northwestern, road loss at Illinois. This is a team holding on by duct tape and moxie. (There's an actual turn of phrase that means the same thing, but it's escaping me.) Purdue is less hateable this year now that vicious white bastard Robbie Hummel is gone (he's actually rehabilitating an ACL injury, and will return as a redshirt senior next year), and they've had several good wins without having a great one yet. With JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore averaging 38ppg together, I have trouble seeing Purdue drop this one to the floundering Spartans.
Extra: I was just looking at Virginia Tech's schedule, since they lost by 3 to Purdue in the Big 10-ACC showdown, and I'm wondering: is this team the ultimate sleeper? They started off 4-4 after losses to Purdue, UNLV, K-State, and Virginia (a particularly bad one), and were largely written off. But now they've reeled off an 8-1 streak that includes a great home win against FSU and an emphatic road win at Maryland. This could be the surprise team of the second half of the season.
****************************
How do you all rank these 5 games in order of preference? I'm thinking it's Nova-Cuse, Texas-Kansas, OSU-Illinois, MSU-Purdue, Kansas State-A&M. But I will probably watch them all.
Okay, time to talk Duke-Wake. What can you really say about this game? The Deacons have lost 8 of 9. One of them was at home to Presbyterian. On the road against Georgia Tech, they scored 39 points. This team is really, really down, and Duke is going to murder them in Wake. I'm not even positive it'll be fun.*
*It's going to be awesome.
As I mentioned yesterday, the Hot Potato for today's game is Mason Plumlee, and you can get a bonus point by commenting with your favorite joke or riddle. We had some good ones yesterday.
Anyway, here are some things that Wake Forest is really bad at: turning the ball over, rebounding, scoring from 2, stealing the ball, giving up steals, offense, and defense. They're pretty big, though. There's that. But they don't really have anyone that tall, just a lot of dudes between 6'4" and 6'8" and one guy, Desrosiers, at 6'11" who plays less than half the game.
At 7pm, there's another great ACC match-up: Boston College at Florida State. The winner will be 5-1 in conference, tied for first with Duke.
Clemson-Maryland at 2:30 might be kind of interesting too, though I'll confine my personal interest in this one to reading the final score.
To close things out, here's a video that's kind of sad and kind of funny. It's a highlight compilation of Seth Curry's freshman year at Liberty. It features an R-Kelly song, and I'm pretty sure a lot of the individual clips are used more than once. Thanks to Jacob the "Destoryer" for sending it along.
This week's Pick Six features a scrabble game between Spike and myself for all the pride in PickSixLand. It's going to be intense. Before we get there, though, a story from academia. I was in my multimedia class yesterday, and this powerpoint from our lecture blew my mind:
Imagine that you are the president of the United States and the country is bracing itself for the outbreak of an unusual epidemic expected to kill 600 people. Your top advisors have prepared two alternative programs to combat the disease, and have estimated, to the best of their ability, the likely consequences of adopting each program.
*If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.
*If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that all 600 will be saved, and a two-thirds probability that none will be saved.
Choose between these two, and then consider the next two programs the advisors prepared:
*If Program C is adopted, 400 people will die.
*If Program D is adopted, there is a one-third probability that nobody will die, and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will die.
Again, which do you choose?
When presented with the two scenarios, I picked A and D. A because you have to take the certain lives saved, and D because you have to take the chance on saving everyone since 400 deaths are far too many.
As it turns out, I'm an idiot, because the two questions are exactly the same. They're just framed with different words. A and C produce the exact same outcome, and ditto for B and D. Essentially, I chose two opposite answers to the same question because of the difference between the words "saved" and "die." Thank God I'm not the president.
Roughly 72% of people make the same mistake I did. This reduces my confidence in both myself and the human race. On the other hand, I posed this same scenario to my girlfriend, and it turns out she's both a) smart and b) heartless. She chose B in the first scenario, meaning she'd rather gamble 600 lives for a 33% chance of saving everyone. Human lives are nothing but abstractions to her. She thinks babies should have full time jobs. Then, when I finished explaining options C and D, she responded with mild annoyance. "You just told me the same thing."
Brilliant.
Okay, we're almost to Pick Six, but first let's check out the Hot Potato standings and choose our HP for the Wake Forest game. I'll probably write a little preview post in the AM, so you can make your guess now or later.
Jill, sYU, Mr. Intrigue, and Jonny all nailed it. Carrie had 10, so she maintains her lead, but folks are looming.
The Hot Potato for the Wake Forest game is:
Doctor Dunk
Also, for a one point bonus, tell me your favorite joke or riddle in the comments. If it's a riddle, don't tell the answer until later.
Let's get to it. It's Championship Week in the NFL (I pick Packers and Jets for an all-green Super Bowl), and our six contestants are all fired up. Without further ado, the latest installment of:
THE FRIDAY PICK SIX
VOLUME THREE, WEEK THREE
The Friday Pick Six is an original SCSD! game where six people make six predictions for six weeks. Along with their picks, they're allowed and encouraged to submit a 'sound-off' on any topic, sports or otherwise. When it's all done, the winner earns great honor among the people, while the two losers are exiled in shame and the three middle finishers go to purgatory, with the chance rescue their good name up to three times. To learn more about the rules, and about the current contestants, read below:
Monty came roaring all the way from third place with some great picks, including a near-perfect guess on Singler's free throws. That earned him 5 points and the lead. Marc and the father/son team of Dylan & Patrick stayed close with 5 points of their own, while Swetha & Sabreena are crouched like tigers in the tall grass. Nick moved up from last, which is about all that can be said, while Spike is entering desperation territory in his last chance to win Pick Six. He had a miserable week, netting only 1 point, and his future looks bleak. But they don't call him 'Spike' because he quits on the job.*
*Nobody knows why they call him Spike.
Jim took the week off from docket duty to convalesce after a nasty horse-riding accident in Bulgaria, so this one is all mine:
1. Second to last chance to pick football. Packers or Bears?
2. Jets or Steelers?
3. Two college hoops games: Nova-Cuse, Texas-Kansas. Pick which road underdog (Texas or Nova) gets closer to the upset (or wins by more, should that happen).
4. How many threes will Duke hit against Wake?
5. Knicks at Spurs, Friday night! Will Stoudemire get 30?
6. Spike and I will play a scrabble game sometime this weekend. Who will win, and what will be the final margin? For bonus points, who will play the Q?
We begin with our new leader, the man named after Colin Montgomerie:
Monty
1. Against my own better judgement, I'm going to pick the Packers. The Bears are good, and they're getting closer, but I sort of like the Packers better. Plus - I'm starting to get that sick feeling that Benny and the Steelers are going to win the whole thing again, and it'll piss me off more if they beat the Packers in the Super Bowl than if they beat the Bears, and I'm starting to get the feeling that this year is going to be one of those years when things that piss me off are going to happen. Like UConn or anyone from the Big Ten winning the NCAA tournament. Bastards.
2. Oddly, given my above reasoning, I'm going to pick Rex Ryan on this one.
3. Well... Kansas is probably not going to lose at Allen Fieldhouse. Texas has lost to Pittsburgh this year, which isn't even a basketball team. On the other hand, I don't really want to be rooting for Villanova - but I guess I'm going to have to.
4. I almost forgot to answer the Duke 3-point question, because I assumed everyone knows they will make all of the three point shots that anyone takes on any team this week. But this was just a question about the Wake game, so that's irrelevant I suppose. 11.
5. Um - last time the Spurs lost in MSG it was the result of bad defense. It was also the last time they lost. There is no way Popovich lets them play bad defense again tonight, so... no, I don't think Stoudemire will drop 30.
6. Spike is going to win by 32, but Shane will play the Q.
Marc, aka Mr. Intrigue
Hello sports fans! Welcome back to the wonderful world of the Pick Six! Hopefully everyone had a fantastic MLK day. Back when I was young I only thought of it as a day off, now that I'm so mature in my old age I realize how important it is. I watched the "I Have a Dream" speech in its entirety and I felt the tears welling towards the end as all the emotion built towards a fantastic climax.
My preaching is done, serious time is over. Now it's time to talk about extremely important things: sports. Why won't the Jets die? Seriously, take your stinky feet and jump off a cliff. When Jabba the Hutt waddled down the field to celebrate the game ending touchdown I puked. I puked everywhere. On my couch, on my feet, and all over my friends. I ran past them one at a time puking directly into their faces. You know how sports players run into tunnels and high five fans on the way. That's what I did, but with puke. I puked and ran into the tunnel. Puke, puke, puke. If the Jets win again I don't know what I'm going to do. Probably morph into Godzilla and pretend my friends are Japan. They should tie me down for the game.
1. We've got permastoner Jay Cutler vs. Awesome Mutton Chops Aaron Rodgers. I'm indifferent towards the Bears. I like the Packers, and I like the Packers chances. Hopefully Starks can replicate his success against whoever they played in the first week of the playoffs and dominate the Bears. Let's go Packers!
2. You all know my feelings on the Jets. However, I don't like the Steelers either. I'm sick of them, they annoy me. Boring, plodding, and led by captain creeper Ben Roethlisberger. He may never have been convicted of anything, but it's pretty ridiculous. Let me pull Ben aside for a second. "Bro, you're an NFL QB, you ride a motorcycle (poorly), you've won superbowls and you're worth millions of dollars. Why are you in shitty nightclubs in redneck world trying to hook up with some undoubtedly gross girls? Go to Vegas, find some grosser girls, have fun, the end. Stop being a sleaze bag creep. It's awful. Don't punch me." There, I've talked some sense into that young man, may he go on to be a wonderful person. I hate the Steelers less than the Jets, therefore the Steelers will win!
3. This is a difficult one. Kenpom predicts nearly identical outcomes for the games. I must go with my gut. I think both road teams will lose, but Villanova will be closer than Texas.
4. I'm feeling very confident that Duke is just going to murder Wake. Miles Plumlee will wield a scythe and bring death upon the Demon Deacons. Our shooters have been slumping a bit lately, and i think they'll break out of it against Wake. I'm going with 10 three pointers.
5. Stoudemire will not get 30 or more. Spurs can play some defense. I don't know anything about the NBA so I asked my friends cat to answer this question. He went "mrahh beeooww boop." Thanks cat.
6. I'm going to relate Spike's Pick Six ability to every other facet in his life. Therefore Shane will crush Spike, by 35. And Spike will play the Q out of spite. Hopefully neither of you play those stupid scrabble words. Nothing enrages me more than playing scrabble with my aunt and plays words like "Xi and pfle. (I should've challenged the second one!)" It was with utter glee and triumph when, on vacation in Myrtle Beach in November, (stupid idea) I played all seven of my letters in one turn, and used the triple word score. After playing it I promptly tore off my shirt and strutted around the room like Hulk Hogan.
So there it is, another entry in my march towards victory. Now I'm off to the student health centers so they can examine my various ailments. Getting old blows, I should have ended everything at 22. That was my peak, it's all downhill from here.
Dylan & Patrick
So after a nice long winter break, I'm back at college. This means I don't get to talk to my dad quite as often, and is usually via email and phone. When I saw an e-mail with the subject "Grounded." I was pretty confused. Frankly, I didn't know my dad knew how to put a subject in an email, so many of them come up with no subject. I figured it would be a good idea to give him a call.
CB: Hey dad, whats up? D: Don't give me any of that Hey Dad shit, you are so grounded. TWO WEEKS DYLAN. CB: Hey, calm down dude, whats up? What are you talking about? D: I'll tell you why dammit. When we were talking about week two, you said you liked the Jets CB: Yea, you told me to get my head out of my ass if I remember correctly. Then I said I really had a strong feeling, and you said you had a great joke to make and you wouldn't take no for an answer. D: Don't give me that, that cost us a shot at the lead. Everyone was picking the Pats, Seth would have thought we were geniuses! CB: Dad, look lets get this straight. If were going to play in this contest together, you got to get his name right... D: Yea, thats another thing. Why didn't you tell me the guys name is not Seth Curry. I've been calling him Seth for weeks, you could have pointed that out don't ya think? CB: Dad I told you like 150 time... D: It's right there on the top of his blog in big letters "I am not Seth Curry"! Now I feel like an idiot, whats his name will never let me write a guest post or read anything I've written. He thinks I'm an idiot. CB: No dad, really (snicker...) I'm sure Shane has a very positive view of you. You do well picking, he knows that... D: So anyway you're grounded. No going out at college for two weeks. You just stay home in your apartment and study. Do you hear me?
At this point, we got to some common ground and decided to communicate our picks better. I don't know how the S girls do it.
1) In the annals of NFL history (must resist cheap joke here) there is probably no bigger match up than Packers/Bears. Why we bet Ol’ Jim McMahon is rolling over in his grave in anticipation of this classic battle. Wait, he’s not dead? With all the crazy stuff he did, Brigham Young didn’t already strike him down with lightning? Well I’ll be...Anyway, the Pack is back baby! Cutler personally is responsible for 4 turnovers and da Bears go home...
2) We have picked against the Jets twice now and have been even more embarrassed than Coach Ryan’s wife and that big dude playing with her feet in those videos but the third time is the charm. J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS, go down quicker than a hundred dollar hook…(must resist cheap joke here again!) The Jets lose, Theeeee Jets Lose!
3) Nova will give Cuse a scare but its still too early for Syracuse to collapse like a cheap dome stadium (you hearing us, Minnesota?!) Texas comes up way short so Nova is the underdog that is closer…
4) Tri-fectas baby! Awesome Baa-bee!! We can hear Dickie V in our brains, rattling around like a UNC grad on your porch waiting for you to pay for the pizza.. Well all those Dukies are PTPer’s baa-bee and they will be hitting from way downtown. Duke makes 8 from behind the 3 point arc!
5) No, Amar’e is kept under 30 but just barel’e…
6) It seems like Spike cannot manage to win anything (see previous Pick 6, Hot Potato, Bowl Challenge, NCAA Tiddle-Winks Championship or Randy Winn…) so the winner here is easy to pick, Seth Curry in a walk. The thing we don’t know is if Spike knows the difference between MUZJIKS and BEZIQUE (7 letter words worth 77 points without any letter or wordmultipliers) We doubt it, Seth wins by 52 and plays the Q too!
Swetha & Sabreena
1. Our love (well frankly, only one of us feels this way) for Aaron Rodgers has already been mentioned once in this space, but here we go again. He is awesome. Friggin' awesome. He completely picked apart the Falcons last week and looks damn near unbeatable. In fact, the only scary part about how good Rodgers looks (both on and off the field--seriously, he's kinda dreamy) is that now everyone's picking him. But it would be kind of poetic for Green Bay to get to the Super Bowl in Favre's last season. OH NO! DID WE JUST JINX IT? PACKERS.
2. We've picked against the Jets two straight weeks and been put to shame each game. Combine that with the fact that the Jets finally won in Heinz Field for the first time in franchise history this year, and we'd have to be pretty stupid to pick Pittsburgh. Well, whaddya know. STEELERS.
3. The Jayhawks have been getting so goddamn lucky, especially at home, but they keep finding themselves in nailbiters. And Syracuse's zone is just a terrible matchup for Nova's dribble-drive offense. Unless Kris Joseph doesn't play, this one's pretty clear. Hook 'em. TEXAS.
4. Duke has hit 7, 5, 11, 6, 8 and 8 threes in the first six games of 2011. And since our new motto is to take the under (based on Swetha's pretty solid hot potato showing and our insanely bad 7-of-9 FT pick for Singler last week), we're going with SEVEN.
5. This is easily my favorite Amare moment of the year and since it has nothing to do with him scoring, that doesn't bode very well. Besides, the Knicks beat up on the Spurs last time these two teams met, and you've gotta believe Duncan and Co. are going to clamp down on defense this time around. NO.
6. Since Shane is a writer, maybe he has a better vocabulary? By the way, there have been some very random Pick Six categories---this one takes the cake. But it does give us the opportunity to show off this awesome game of Scrabble, which, incredibly, prominently features the letter Q. SHANE will win by 15 POINTS and SPIKE will play the Q.
Nick E.
1. As my fantasy QB this season, I have a lot of respect for Aaron Rodgers. I had a fantasy conversation with him the other day, and he said he was really worried about playing in Solder Field. He mentioned that both his completion percentage and QB rating are significantly lower outside (71.4% to 64.6% and 115.2 to 98.5). So then I said don't worry about it Aaron, when it's under 40 degrees outside you have a passer rating of 123.6. Then he thanked me for having so much faith as a fantasy owner, playing him in weeks when he said he'd be out (although I didn't mention that this is because our retarded league rules don't let me change my lineups the day of OH MY GOD IT MAKES ME SO MAD). Then we went and got fantasy ice cream and talked about philosophy. He has some fascinating views on Kant. What? Sorry. PACKERS
2. FORGIVE ME, REX RYAN, FOR I HAVE SINNED AGAINST YOU! Despite using an email address with "Jets" in it since the fourth grade, and despite the fact that as a child I once spent almost an entire year wearing a Wayne Chrebet jersey, last week I tried to hedge my emotions and pick the Pats. Never again, Rex. From now on we shall triumph or parish together. In all that is holy, I will never again doubt my J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS.
3. Goin back to my old pal KenPom for this one. Pomeroy has Kansas as a 78% favorite, while Syracuse is only a 72% favorite. Also, Kansas plays a much faster tempo than Syracuse (71.3 to 67.0) and they're more efficient than Syracuse. However, I just have to go with my gut on this one, Rex Ryan style. TEXAS
4. Hoo boy, Wake is bad this year. Like really, really bad. KenPom has them listed as the 234th best team in Division I, edging out Liberty and just below Wagner. Some of their lowlights include a 66-64 home loss to 242nd ranked Presbyterian, an 89-79 home loss to to 288th ranked Stetson, and an 83-74 home loss to 249th ranked Winthrop. This is going to be a real, real bad game for them. I say Duke hits 12 THREE POINTERS.
5. I love Amar'''''''e, but the Spurs' defense is way too solid. NO
6. I thought the pick six couldn't get any more self-aggrandizing than the infamous Hillsborough Football series, but I guess I was wrong. SPIKE will win BY 22 and will use the Q.
Spike
Pack, jets, nova, 16, yes, me by 29 you get the q
*************************
See you tomorrow morning for some thoughts on the impending Wake beat down. Here's a special sneak preview of that post:
"I hope nobody gets injured."
Hopefully I'll also have an update on the big scrabble game. Spike is in my crosshairs. Here's his before and after picture:
BEFORE:
AFTER:
Make your hot potato picks below, and have a great championship weekend.
It's now confirmed: his basketball skills are not limited to television. He's an actual human who plays on real courts and can make shots. He exists in three dimensions.
Also: he looks at you funny if you ask for a simple hug.
My pal Andrew and I drove out to Raleigh yesterday to see the game, and were treated to a rare ACC road win. Home teams in intra-conference games are now 19-6, but I'm happy to report that Duke owns one of the six. And it wasn't that tough, either. But this was a strange game. Before I get to grades, though, a couple thoughts on the RBC Center and the N.C. State atmosphere.
-I guess it's kind of cool that they have a huge arena with a big capacity (19,000), but I'm not sold on playing basketball games in a hockey venue. I know I said this yesterday about the Dean Dome, but I mean it even more so now: I felt the detachment I'm used to experiencing at an NBA game. It's hard to create an intense environment in such a cavernous space.
1) Also, I understand the need for a lot of seats, but what I don't understand is why anyone would go to a game and sit in the highest level. We bought scalped tickets for $25 apiece in the parking lot, and they were nosebleeds.* After we got stonewalled in the lower sections, we had to sit up high for the first half. And it is zero percent better than watching on tv, in my opinion. Maybe not on this particular occasion, since I hadn't seen a live Duke game in like 5 years and was loving it, but in general those seats get a big "NOT WORTH IT" stamp from this dude.
*The Patriots defense couldn't stop these seats.
I am probably a ticket snob. I'm definitely one of those d-bags who always buys cheap tickets and then sneaks into lower sections. I get this jittery feeling if I'm too high up, like I'm missing out on the action, and I can't sit still until I've improved my lot in life. But live sports are so catered to television now that the only way it's worthwhile to go in person is to sit close enough that you get a sense of the human proportions. Luckily, we were able to move to the first level at halftime, and the second half was great.
2) This is the first time I've been to the RBC Center, and also the first time I've ever seen a metal detector in use for a college sporting event. Really, guys? Is it necessary to hold everyone up for ten minutes so you can confirm there are no knives or guns? State fans and Duke fans may hate each other's teams, but they've been living in peace for many years now. I think we can forgo the airport ritual.
3) N.C. State fans in the student section wear red shirts that say "Red Terrors: Pride of the Wolfpack." Oh, nice. You guys are in a club? That's cool. And you're pretty crazy, huh? I can tell how crazy you must be by the fact that you all wear the same t-shirt. Hey, come here for a second, I have to whisper something to you. No, it's cool, come here, I just don't want everyone else to hear...
BAM! THERE'S A HEADBUTT FOR YOUR NOSE, WOLFPACK! THAT'S RIGHT, MOTHERFUCKER, I'M A GODDAMN MOODY BLUE! I DON'T NEED A T-SHIRT TO KNOW I'M THE BADDEST SON OF A BITCH ON THE PLANET! I JUST GO AROUND ROOTING FOR DUKE AND KICKING PEOPLE'S ASSES! T-SHIRTS?! PLEASE. I ONLY WEAR PANTS BECAUSE SOCIETY REQUIRES IT AND I ALREADY DID MY TIME. NOW WIPE YOUR NOSE AND GO COMPLAIN ON THE INTERNET, YOU FUTURE HOUSE HUSBAND!
AND OH, LOOK, DUKE IS RUNNING OUT THE CLOCK, WE WON IN YOUR HOUSE AGAIN. THIS IS REAL LIFE, BITCHES- WELCOME TO THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN.
(This is a loose description of what happened last night. Also, respect to the house husbands out there. I'm still hoping my girlfriend gets rich and I can join you.)
4) Tangential: My search for a picture of the red terrors t-shirt failed, but I found this, which is truly awesome:
People with Che shirts su-uck.
5) I did not get a single comment from the State faithful about my Duke hat, other than a single old lady who gave a comic look of disapproval and then smiled to show me she wasn't serious.* There were a lot of Duke-clad folks in the crowd, so maybe they're used to it, but it still surprised me. And even though I wasn't an overbearing idiot in the crowd, I wasn't shy about cheering when Duke scored. So, kudos to the Wolfpack. You are gracious hosts.
*Don't get me wrong, I still headbutted her. She made her choice.
Alright, to the game. What a strange one. When the game was over, I couldn't believe we ran up 92 points. It never seemed like we went on a true flurry, but I guess it was just quiet, consistent scoring throughout. Both teams scored 50 in the second half, which is sort of nuts. There was some intensity with about 13 minutes left, when Scott Wood hit back-to-back threes to pull State within 5, but it never really seemed that the outcome was in jeopardy.
Still, we also never asserted ourselves, right? It was a completely solid offensive performance, but I kept waiting for the death blow that never came. But again, a win on the road in ACC play is hard enough, and I will absolutely take it. Let's give out some grades.
Plumdog Millionaire: A-. Credit where it's due. I give this guy enough shit when he struggles, so it's only proper to give him praise when it's earned. He had a nice, solid game. He even had one very nice post move when he made a turn-around bank shot in the first half. It was very un-Plum-like. He was an integral part of Duke out-rebounding State 42-32, and his 11 points did not, surprisingly, come on easy dunks. He had to work. He's played less than 10 minutes in his last two games, and part of me thought the season was over for Plumblebum the Lesser. And believe me, I'm not stupid enough to hope that his performance is an indication of what's to come. But I'm happy for him, and I have no criticism of his performance.
Knowlan Springs:A. His 22 points, including a basket whenever momentum looked to be turning the other way, cements Nolan as the frontrunner for ACC Player of the Year. Not only is he a great scorer and completely unshakable under pressure, but he always has one move per game that drops jaws. You can see last night's in the ESPN highlight video linked above, when he dices through the defense and makes a reverse lay-up with extreme english. Those moments are great at Cameron, because everyone goes nuts, but it's almost more fun to watch them on the road and hear that first deflated moment of complete silence followed by mumbled, grudging admissions of greatness. I love Nolan Smith. Only 1-6 from three keeps him from an A+.
Boom Radley:B-. It just seems like he's forcing it quite a bit. He's still the player we can always count on in the big moments, and he didn't let us down last night, but overall he was only 6-18, and it felt like he was kind of bottled up on defense a lot. I've always thought he gets just a little too much national credit, and nothing has changed my opinion this year. He's a great shooter and an extremely hard worker, but he needs picks to score, and too often he tries a one-on-one style that doesn't suit him and is rarely successful. But hey, he grabbed 9 board and scored 18 points, so maybe we can't complain. If you look at his numbers compared to the last two years, though, his assists are down by 1 per game, and his assist-to-turnover is lower as well. That may just be an indication that he's shooting more on a team that needs him to shoot, and his field goal percentage definitely isn't suffering, so I'll reserve any final conclusions for now. I think what it amounts to is that Singler just doesn't move like an elite basketball player, and I have to get used to the fact that he gets the job done anyway.
StumblePlum the Taller:C. He has got to stop shooting that long-range jumper. I know it only happened twice last night, but good God, STOP. He looked terrible. The one play that really annoyed me was when he defended the alley-oop by emphatically swatting the ball back into play. He could easily have caught that ball, and instead Tracy Smith got the ball at the top of the key and converted a three-point play. That's the kind of idiocy that costs points and possessions. He also had a terrible night in defensive rotation, and I've completely given up hope that he'll ever box anyone out. He had 10 boards last night, but he should have had about 20. To pile misery upon misery, I'm now convinced his hands are made of vasoline and ice. Frustrating to watch.
The White Raven:A-. This is the kind of game I wish we could always get from Kelly. 24 minutes, 8 boards, 2 big threes, 11 points, and decent defense. He filled his role almost to perfection. When Kelly plays like that, he lifts the whole team.
Tyler Thornton:B. He's a total pest. He's the kind of guy you would absolutely hate if he were on the other team. I love him. His three in the first half was one of my favorite moments of the game.
Young Threezy: C. Still waiting for him to break out. I thought we'd seen evidence that he was on the cusp, but it hasn't materialized yet. Rough game for him last night; 0-4 from three, two turnovers, 8 points. I still think he needs to start driving to the basket when he's not open. He'll create more shots for himself that way, and defenses will stop seeing him as a one-trick pony.
Seth Curry:C+. To be completely fair, he got screwed by the refs on a couple early fouls. At least it looked that way from where I was sitting. People watching at home can confirm or overturn that notion, but I think the zebras gave him little chance to find any rhythm. Contrary to Dawk, I think Seth is on the rise. I expect him to have a 16-20 point game real soon. I'm eyeballing the Wake game on Saturday, actually.
Team Defense:C+. Coach K was losing his cool near the end because we kept fouling, and because State would not stop scoring. It's very rare for this team to allow an opponent to score more second half points than first half points, and it's even rare for anyone to put up 50 on us in a half. In fact, it hasn't happened yet this season. And State isn't that good. I don't see this as much more than an anomaly of good shooting and bad luck, but it's definitely one of our worst performances of the season.
Last licks:
-Man, Wake Forest is pretty bad. 39 points? Saturday could get ugly.
-Virginia continues to be the team that can almost put it together, but seems to perpetually wind up on the losing side. It's hard to know what to make of this team. As of now, they don't seem like a tourney-bound squad, but they certainly have stretches where they play quite well. Puzzling.
-FSU gets a road win at Miami. Everyone wants to talk about how "down" the ACC is this year, but we've seen time and again how conference evaluations mean exactly nothing when the big dance rolls around. Last year's Big East meltdown is the classic example, but it happens every time. So here's a bold prediction: the Seminoles are going to make the Elite 8. They have everything you need to raise hell in March: great defense, height, strong rebounders, and guys who can score in streaks.
-In his quest for a Rafa slam, my hero is through to the second round. It was easy, too. His first two cupcake matches bode well for his stamina when the tough matches arrive. You can see his post-match interview here. Apparently, he plans to go to the aquarium. TELL ME YOU DON'T LOVE THIS GUY!
Pick Six and Wake Forest Hot Potato tomorrow. Pretty sure I'm going to pick a Plumlee.
Gents, ladies, I am not 100% confident Duke will win this game. That may sound absolutely ridiculous, considering N.C. State just had their dignity handed to them in a miniature novelty urinal by Florida State. But that was on the road. And so was their loss to Boston College. In their only home ACC game, they decimated Wake Forest, who, as we all know, stinks.
But let's revisit a point made yesterday. In inter-conference ACC games, the home team is now 17-4 this year. That's an 81% winning rate in a conference that has averaged between 60% and 65% the last five years (thanks to NastyEmu for running the numbers). At the very least, we should consider that every home team has at least a shot, even in extreme circumstances.
Now, let's look at N.C. state specifically. Using their KenPom profile and their ESPN stats, what do we know?
1. They play pretty big. Their average and effective height are both around 60th in the country out of 345 teams. C.J. Leslie, Tracy Smith, Richard Howell, and DeShawn Painter are all over 6'8" and get decent minutes. Together, those guys average 37 points per game. Not great news for Duke, a team who, to put it mildly, struggles underneath.
2. They hit the offensive boards very hard, good for 16th overall. Again, bad news for Duke.
3. They're young. They don't have a single senior who plays more than half the game, and of their four top starters, three are freshman and one is a sophomore. That's great news for Duke.
4. They have at least one great 3-point shooter, Scott Wood (43%). Lorenzo Brown (33%) and Javier Gonzalez (29%) are just okay.
5. They play good defense. They're 39th overall in effective field goal percentage, 69th at defending the three, and 54th at defending the two.
By now, the formula for beating Duke in the ACC is pretty evident. In fact, there's an easy checklist to follow. Let's see how N.C. State fares.
A) Be at home.
It's going to be very, very hard for anyone to get a win at Cameron this season, even with Kyrie out. N.C. State plays at the RBC Center, which is the 8th-largest Division 1 basketball facility in America. It'll be packed tonight. Duke went down to a far inferior N.C. State team there last season, so there's also precedent. This is a big, fat CHECK.
B) Clog the middle, make 2-point field goals hard to come by.
N.C. State has four big men they can throw on the court, and we already saw the stats on their 2-point field goal defense. The Plumlees and Kelly are unlikely to factor in to the scoring. CHECK.
C) Have a few guys who can get hot from 3.
Yup. Wood, Brown, and Gonzalez are all capable. CHECK.
D) Have tall guards who can harass Duke's three-point shooters.
Duke can get hot any point, so nothing is ever guaranteed. But it certainly helps if you have tall guards who make life just a little more difficult. Florida State did the job well, and N.C. State only lags behind them slightly in this category. Brown is 6'4" and Wood is 6'6", but Harrow is only 5'11" and Gonzalez is 6'0". HALF-CHECK.
E) Protect the ball and get second chances.
CHECK. We've seen their numbers on the offensive boards, and they're 91st in the country at avoiding turnovers, which is fine. Florida State was 298th, and they still won.
The Wolfpack has all the elements in place for an upset. Does that mean it's going to happen? Not necessarily. But they are 8-1 at home. Like a lot of Duke games this season, this one will come down to shooting. If the second half of the Virginia game is an indication of how we'll play tonight, Duke is fully capable of blowing them out of the water, even on the road. If the shooting woes from the first half of that game and the FSU game continue to haunt us, though, I guarantee this will be another battle.
My prediction: Duke 75, N.C. State 69
In great news, I WILL BE AT THIS GAME! I don't have a ticket or anything, but I'm going to head over and see what I can scare up on the cheap. It'll be my first Duke game this season (providing I get in), and I'll be wearing at least some Duke regalia among the Wolfpack hordes. I'm torn between just wearing a simple hat, or getting all emphatic and rocking my devil-horns head piece. I guess it depends how much I want my ass kicked by four dudes with tattoos of a red wolf eating a Duke hamster, and two of them have robbed a Wendy's in Pittsboro, and one has chronic bronchitis.
Hey, how's about a little Hot Potato?
There's the current standings. Carrie widened her lead significantly by going high with Nolan Smith at 24 against UVA, and she's now clear of the field by 11. Hopefully she'll pick an absurd number like 88 tonight to give the rest of us a chance. The Hot Potato for the N.C. State game is:
Curry-Up Offense
Do I need to make the hot potato schpiel again? Basically, it's a game where you pick the number of points scored by the featured Dukie. The difference between your pick and the actual points is your score for that day. It accumulates over a season, and you can join at any point. Make your picks by game time.
This is news that shouldn't be buried this deep: Kyrie Irving's cast comes off on February 4th. We still don't know what the hell that means in terms of him playing this year, but it's not bad news. I'll take it. Thanks to resident podiatrist Dr. Jim for the link, and everyone else be warned: February 4th will be some kind of holiday in the larger Duke universe. We need to think of a good name and a good idea for the celebration. But this must happen. And it will heavily involve this song and video:
So, last night I was back at the Dean Dome for Carolina's close win over Clemson. For the second straight game, I managed to haggle my way into a $10 ticket, and I have a feeling I could have held out for $5 if I felt like being a stickler. And just like the V. Tech game, I went and sat in the first level about 20 rows up. Compared to Yankee Stadium, they really make it easy on you in Chapel Hill.
This was also my girlfriend's first college basketball game, so it was kind of a big moment. I'm sorry to report she wasn't that into it. I probably should have taken her to a Duke game first, since she knows those players and might care a bit more, but the extent of her interest last night was to analyze the cheerleaders and get kind of annoyed when everyone stood up at the big moments. (Her defense after reading: "It wasn't for BIG moments. It was for the dumb moments. Why stand up for big foul shots when you're up 10? Who gives a shit?")
Here are a few takeaways from my two games at Carolina basketball, for what they're worth.*
*37 cents exactly
1. The fans are pretty tame. They get up when things are tense, but overall they sit most of the game and it never really seems to get thunderous. Again, I've only been to a Virginia Tech and Clemson game, and I'm sure it's better for Duke or N.C. State. Then again, both games were close, so I expected a bit more.
2. I'm not a big fan of the Dean Dome. I don't know the first thing about designing a place to play basketball, but I really don't get why any university wouldn't have the student section wrap around the court. The 'student section' at Carolina is laughably small; about six rows behind one basket. And really, the whole place feels too much like an NBA arena. It's not nearly intimate enough.
3. This Carolina team will either go 9-7 or 8-8 in ACC play. They'll always be tough at home, and my guess is they'll be pushovers on the road. That's what we've seen so far, and the two games I've attended have done nothing to disabuse me of the notion. They seem to coast for large parts of the game, and then the home crowd riles them up and they play with a little passion and win. But without the energy from the Chapel Hill faithful, I don't see this team having the fire or ability to steal big games on the road.
4. Reggie Bullock is a mad man. He got hot in the first half yesterday, and then he proceeded to shoot any time he touched the ball for the rest of the game. It was the same against Virginia Tech, except he was never hot. In both games, he ended up really hurting the team in the second half. I can't tell if he's going to very good, a huge liability, or both.
5. Harrison Barnes needs to take over. He's good, but he's playing so timid, and he spends most of the game looking like crap. Roy Williams needs to turn him loose. It's not like they're going anywhere this year anyway, so he might as well start encouraging him to be great. I like to make fun of ole Barnesy, but at the same time it's annoying to see someone with that much talent languish on the perimeter of a boring offense. For my money, Roy is a mediocre game coach at best.
A few miscellaneous things, and then I'm outta here.
-Federer was taken to five sets in Melbourne. Yikes.
-My pal Nick sent me this article about Yankee hitting coach Kevin Long working with Derek Jeter. My take? Great article by Verducci, and fantastic news for Yankee fans. They started adjusting his stance last season, and after they implemented the change, Jeter hit .311 in the last 28 games with a .393 OBP. The combination of Long's genius and Jeter's work ethic makes me think he has an excellent chance to hit .290, and a good chance to surpass .300 again. It's also heartening to learn that Long is making stops to work with Swish and especially Teixeira. Maybe we won't have to wait til July for Tex to get a hit this year.
-There's a site called Rafaholics.com. This alters the path of my life. See you never. Tell grad school I won't be around for a while. Please mail me food.
