Below is Singler's three-point shooting chart for the season. His 33.5% mark is the lowest of his college career; lower by far than his 39.9% mark from a year ago. I thought it might be interesting to see how he's shooting from different spots on the floor. I'm not sure how much it can really tell us, but it's interesting anyway. A few notes:
*This is my second time using Adobe Illustrator. Go easy on me.
*I used CBS' shot charts for each Duke game this season. When I finished, I had Singler 56/165 on the year. He's actually 57/170. I either missed five three pointers, or CBS didn't plot them. It was probably me. In any case, I don't think it matters much for this chart, since we're looking at trends and we have a good sample size. But for the sticklers of the world, there's one more made three and four more misses out there somewhere.
*The court is divided into five zones. Each zone has about the same floor space, even if it doesn't look that way on the chart. The only one that's slightly smaller is the top of the key, which I measured as though the lane was extended straight to the top of the arc.
*Each symbol only represents a made or missed shot in that region. Don't take their placement on the graph as an indication that Singler shot the ball from that exact spot. Each shot could have been taken anywhere within the given zone. It probably would have been cooler to show the exact locations, but I think it would have been too cluster-y in this case.
That all being said, here you go.
Thoughts:
*Dude is great from the right wing. 30-61, for 49%. He takes the most shots from that side, and it's his second-most successful zone.
*A close second for shots taken is the left wing, but the results there are terrible: 14-58, 24%.
*He's miserable from the right corner: 1-15 on the year and easily the worst zone.
*Oddly, though, the left corner is his best percentage zone: 8-15, 50%.
*The top of the key has not been good Mr. Singler. 3-15, 20%.
Here's the only possible explanation I can think of: he's much better shooting while moving to his left. The majority of the shots from the left wing, a terrible zone, come when he curls off screens from the right corner or right block. He's moving right. In the right corner, he clearly can only be moving to the right, since the left is out of bounds. Again, this is a real bad zone. On the right wing, though, he's mostly coming off curl screens inside or from the right corner, and his momentum is coming left. Same deal in the left corner; he's usually going to be fading down from the right wing.
But this is all speculation without seeing the actual video. Still, you'd think the coaching staff would be on this stuff and try to spring him in his hot zones a bit more. Judging from the CBS shot charts, though, there's been no big change in his shooting patterns over the past month. He continues to spread it around at a roughly even clip.
Let me know what you think. And please, by all means, give me your stylistic feedback on the chart. I'm loving these new programs like Illustrator, and I want to learn to use them well. Sorry again for the late post. I'm back tomorrow morning on the usual schedule.
Hello from the very very small town of fortuna de minas in brazil. I am currently in what looks to be someones living room that I was pointed to as a cyber cafe (1$/hr). scads of little local boys are staring over my shoulder, but noone knows any english so its not that bothersome. people here have never seen an american. carnival is crazy even in tiny town. anyway, I JUST found out who won the big game!!! Its been gnawing at me to know. Im glad that the two teams are where they should be at the top. Hope you had some fun anyway, looks like Marshall played a solid game, Dvr will allow me to see it when I get home.
ReplyDelete-JOhn
ReplyDeletehe also seems to be terrible from nba range
ReplyDeleteAgainst Temple he only took one 3 point shot and ended with 28 points. so does he really need to shoot 3's?
ReplyDeleteI really think Singler needs to go down low a lot more often, I mean on Saturday all I saw was him and Kelly jacking up bullshit 3's and that is one of the main reasons why we got run off the court. I really hope Singler finishes strong because if he doesn't Duke (and his draft stock) are going to continue declining. I love Singler, and I hate to see his season going in this direction but I really think he can turn it around, his numbers have always been great in the ACC tourney and I think he'll have a solid couple of games that will give him some confidence going into the Big Dance (with Kyrie hopefully)
ReplyDeleteExcellent graphic. pretending to work so i can't elaborate.
ReplyDelete-Nook
Maybe there's something wrong with him. Watch some highlights from his junior or sophomore years. Looks like a completely different player. I had forgotten how athletic some of the plays he made were.
ReplyDeleteI agree with the above comment about his shot choices. I wouldn't want to drive on Henson either but the guy has to get closer than 40 ft from the basket before he tries the fade-aways. Its about as frustrating a shot as the Plumble-hook.
ReplyDeleteDr. K
Great post!
ReplyDeleteWhile the 3 may not be his entire make up, it is an important part of this team.
If he starts playing closer to the basket he will get more free throws and better shots.
This in turn would help his efficiency and help his shot come back to life.
Players that are struggling usually come back if they will start closer in and start with basics. Singler seems to have trouble setting his feet this year which might be due to him playing everywhere. Remember he was not supposed to have to be doing as much but we lost our primary ball handler. I would be interested in seeing the stats before Irving was injured. A fatigued player does not set his feet when shooting. Basic fundamentals get overlooked for lack of energy to do them. I was a coach at one time and have noticed much change I his shooting. I believe two things would help. 1. The plumblees and Kelly playing some hard defense for once which means watching how Brian stood his ground, played solid hard defense without jumping to block every damn shot. 2. good rest. Of course we could and do all hope that Irving returns. Duke will pull it together. I have confidence in Kyle as a student and as a player. I have the utmost confidence in Nolan Smith as a leader. I am falling in love with Curry. And Coach K is one of the greatest coaches of all time. Great chart and use of illustrator.
ReplyDeleteReally interesting chart. Thanks for posting it! May I ask an enormous favor? If you have time, would you consider doing the same analysis for his junior year (and perhaps sophomore year as well)? It would show us whether there were any trends over his career and generally increase the sample size. As to your speculation about the shots from the right and left corner, interesting theory but I believe it is probably just a small sample size that accounts for the variation. You could do a t-statistic analysis to prove the point with 95% (or whatever level) confidence (if you're statistically inclined).
ReplyDeleteGreat graphic! Thanks for posting it!
I agree wit Joseph above... It's all about their schedules.
ReplyDeletemany players has propused many methods to make a better 3 point shoot, but I don't believe that exist some kind of method to assure in a 100% your shoot, it's just a mere question that be in the right moment in the right place.
ReplyDelete