Friday, December 18, 2009

Bonus AFTERNOON Post: The Bowl Games Prediction Extravaganza

Hey SCSD fans, because I screwed you out of a post yesterday, I thought I'd tack on a little bonus Friday content. Since I've become a bowl-game predicting machine today, I thought I'd take my efforts public and predict all 34 bowl games, little by little, over the next few weeks. In your eagerness and gratitude, don't miss the morning Friday post below.

Which leads to the question: what would my winning % have to be to be called 'successful'? Straight up, I'm thinking I have to have fewer than 10 losses. Against the spread, I'll allow myself 14 losses. So here are the targets:

Straight-Up Bowl Season Prediction Goal: 25-9
Against-the-Spread Bowl Season Prediction Goal: 20-14

Current Records:

Straight-Up: 0-0
Against-the-Spread: 0-0

On to the weekend games!

Fresno State (-11) vs. Wyoming, Saturday, 4:30pm:

Fresno is part of the Wac-Attack, and offense-heavy conference that makes me wish I had season tickets for any of their teams. They're 8-4 on the year, with three of their losses coming early to Wisconsin, Boise St., and Cincinnati. Recently, though, they got killed by Nevada and just squeaked by Illinois. Wyoming, though, is just 2-4 in their last 6, and those wins have been squeakers. They give up points almost at the same rate that Fresno likes to score them. Despite the high spread, I don't see the Cowboys coming close to a cover.

I Like: Fresno straight up and with the spread.

Rutgers (-2.5) vs. U. Central Florida, Saturday, 8pm:

Rutgers were somewhat of an enigma in the Big East this season, excelling on the road and taking good schools like Pitt and West Virginia down to the wire. A late inexplicable blow-out loss to Syracuse gives me pause, but their 8-4 record is still somewhat impressive. They travel well, but will that be enough against UCF, a school coming off 3 straight wins, including a narrow one over then #15 Houston? Yes, I believe so. Aside from the Syracuse loss, their D has been relatively solid, and will be better than almost anyone UCF has seen in Conference USA. Four weeks ago, UCF went down 35-3 to Texas, and while this game won't be the same level, I'm not expecting anything close.

I Like: Rutgers straight up and with the spread.

Southern Miss (-3.5) vs. Mid. Tennessee State, Sunday, 8:30pm:

This is the ultimate who-gives-a-shit game, but analyze I must. Both teams score like crazy and don't play much defense. In the few games they've played against quality opponents, though, MTSU has trouble scoring; 14 against Clemson, 7 against Troy, 6 against Mississippi St. They're badasses in the Sun Belt, but Southern Miss, competitive in all but one game this year, should annihilate them.

I Like: Southern Miss straight up and with the spread.

Off we go!

No comments:

Post a Comment